Analysis: Gator Bowl will choose Irish if BCS overlooks them
By ANDREW SOUKUP
Sports Writer
Notre Dame's bowl picture is slowly coming into focus, and the Irish may not like the image they see.
The only way the 10-2 Irish can lock up a spot in a BCS bowl is by earning one of the two at-large spots and finishing in the top 12 of the final BCS rankings released Sunday. If Notre Dame doesn't qualify for a BCS bowl, the team would probably be heading for the Gator Bowl, according to a Gator Bowl official.
The Irish officially learn their bowl fate Sunday.
The problem for Notre Dame's BCS hopes is that one of the at-large berths may have already disappeared. The Big Ten announced Tuesday 11-1 Iowa was guaranteed a berth in one of the BCS bowls, most likely the Rose Bowl.
Assuming Miami and Washington State win Saturday, each clinching their respective conference championships, USC would finish fourth in the BCS standings and automatically clinch the final at-large spot. According to the BCS rules, a team that finishes fourth in the final rankings but doesn't win its conference championship is guaranteed a BCS berth.
If that scenario becomes a reality and the Irish aren't selected for a BCS berth, a Gator Bowl representative said the Gator Bowl would choose Notre Dame.
Moreover, because a non-BCS Notre Dame team falls into the Big East bowl arrangements, the Irish could not reject a Gator Bowl invitation in favor of another bowl.
That means the Irish would face 10-3 North Carolina State on Jan. 1 in Jacksonville, Fla.
Under that situation, Miami and Ohio State would meet in the Fiesta Bowl for the national championship, the SEC champ would play ACC champ Florida State in the Sugar Bowl, Washington State and Iowa would play in the Rose Bowl and USC and the Big 12 champ would meet in the Orange Bowl.
The Irish still have a narrow chance of squeaking into a BCS bowl. If 7-4 UCLA beats 9-2 Washington State, USC would win the Pac-10 title and the automatic Rose Bowl berth awarded to the conference champion, where they would probably face Iowa. That frees up an at-large bid that would most likely be given to Notre Dame.
If Miami makes the Fiesta Bowl, the Orange Bowl would be able to select its at-large team first.
In addition to Notre Dame, an Orange Bowl official said the bowl is also considering 10-2 Kansas State, which promised the Orange Bowl Tuesday it would buy 25,000 tickets if selected.
Another, more unlikely, scenario involves undefeated Miami losing to 9-3 Virginia Tech this weekend.
The loss would move 11-1 Georgia into the national championship game and possibly knock USC out of its automatic spot.
Then the Sugar Bowl could select Notre Dame.
Minutes after Notre Dame lost to USC 44-13, Irish coach Tyrone Willingham started arguing his team's case for a BCS berth.
"The case is that we've played 12 ballgames and we've won 10 of those ballgames," he said. "We've been a very improved and very sound football team. This one game can not be a true indicator of that."
But Willingham's campaigning won't have any impact unless UCLA wins Saturday.
All Sports Stories for Thursday, December 5, 2002
