Bush-Gore race prompts electoral college concerns
By Anne Marie Mattingly
News Editor
The inaguration of a President who did not win the greatest number of popular votes is a distinct possibility this January, according to some Notre Dame and Saint Mary's government professors. If Texas Governor George W. Bush, who will most likely lose the popular vote, carries the toss-up state of Florda, he will win the electoral college by a margin of at least 271 to 260 and become the third president in history to be elected in a divided contest.
The nation has only witnessed two such elections in history, first in 1876 when Ruteherford Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden by one electoral vote despite losing the popular vote, and again in 1888 when Grover Cleveland carried the popular vote but lost the electoral college to Benjamin Harrison. The only son of a former president ever to be elected president himself, John Quincy Adams, won neither the electoral nor popular vote in1824, but was given the presidency by the House of Representatives when his opponent Andrew Jackson also did not earn enough electoral votes to win.
Sean Savage, associate professor of political science at Saint Mary's, said the chances are as high as one in three that Bush will become the fourth president to be elected without winning the popular vote.
Christina Wolbrecht, assistant professor of government at Notre Dame, said the race is definitely tight.
"It is among the closest races, certainly in the 20th century and even for all 200-some years," she said.
But both Savage and Wolbrecht said that a Bush election without the largest number of popular votes would not necessarily signal the end of the electoral college.
"In order to end the electoral college, we would need to amend the Constitution," said Savage, who noted that the amendment process is never easy. "It seems to me more so than in any other time in our history, public opinion and election officials would aggressively challenge the electoral college."
Wolbrecht explained that for an amendment to become part of the Constitution, it must pass both houses of Congress by a two-thirds majority before being sent to state legislatures for ratification.
"At the end of the day, it takes a great deal of support to revise the Constitution. We don't do that very often, so I think the chances would be slight," she said. "You need a lot of support for an amendment, and I'm not sure that it's necessarily going to be there."
Both professors agreed that a split election would have little effect on the new president's ability to successfully conduct foreign policy.
"I don't think it's going to affect things much internationally," said Savage. "This person is the President of the United States, regardless of how narrow his victory was."
Instead, the bigger threat to the new administration's legitimacy comes in terms of dealing with the Congress, which may become influential as several seats will change hands in January. Legislators, who often view the results of a presidential campaign as a mandate from the people dictating the government's direction for the next four years, might be less influenced by the outcome in the case of a split vote.
"The Republicans in each house are going to be more likely to keep their distance from George W. Bush as president because they know he could be a political liability back in their home states when they run for re-election," said Savage. "There's always going to be this big question about his legitimacy politically."
But Americans can expect the result of the electoral vote to stand, even if widespread discontent with the outcome ensues, said Wolbrecht.
"The fact of the matter is that we have certain rules about how elections are run in this country," she said.
Ultimately, the presidential race has come down to the state of Florida, which Bush won by just over 1,200 votes in the first ballot-counting. The votes are now being recounted as required by Florida law in any election with a margin of victory of 0.5 percent or less.
Concerns have been raised about the security of the ballots in Florida, where Bush's brother Jeb is the governor.
Both campaigns have sent dignitaries to represent them —Republican James Baker and Democrat Warren Christopher — during the recount. But despite the Bush family's connections in Florida, citizens have little to worry about regarding ballot fraud, said Wolbrecht.
"In this day and age, it'd be a tough thing to do," said Wolbrecht, noting that Florida's state district attorney, who is responsible for supervising the recount, is Democratic candidate Al Gore's campaign manager in the state.
Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris has said that the recount should be complete by 5 p.m. today. The election may or may not be decided at that time, depending on the number of absentee ballots which have not yet been received from voters abroad and the margin between Bush and Gore.
The overseas absentee ballots, which are primarily from personnel serving in the U.S. military, are expected to go primarily for Bush.
Other concerns about confusing Florida ballots, in which several senior citizens claim they mistakenly voted for Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, have not yet been resolved.
Regardless of the outcome, America can expect a peaceful transition of power.
"Gore has already said that if [Bush wins the electoral college], he's fully ready to concecde and recognize [Bush] as the president," said Wolbrecht.
All News Stories for Thursday, November 9, 2000
