In "Magnolia," one of this year's Oscar-nominated films, it rains frogs. The theory is that sometimes frogs are swept up into the air during tornadoes and become caught up in the strong winds, only to fall back to earth miles from where the tornado originally struck. It happens from time to time in South America, and it's a weird phenomenon, but then again last year "Shakespeare in Love" upset "Saving Private Ryan" for Best Picture.

Best Picture

When this year's nominations were announced it seemed that there was no clear-cut frontrunner in the best picture category. Most recently though, "American Beauty" has made such a sweep of other year-end film awards that it would probably degrade the award if any other film won. So far this year "American Beauty" has won three Golden Globes (best picture, best director and best screenplay), three Screen Actors Guild Awards (ensemble acting, Annette Benning and Kevin Spacey) and the Director's Guild Award (Sam Mendes). It was also chosen as best film by more than 15 newspapers, television stations and radio stations (L.A. Times, Chicago Tribune, Rolling Stone, among others).

Well-known critic Roger Ebert of the Chicago Sun-Times has predicted "American Beauty" to not only win Best Picture, but for it to "sweep" the five major categories that it was nominated — best picture, best actor, best actress, best director and best original screenplay (it also received nominations in Sound, Score and Editing). In the 71-year history of the Academy Awards, only three films have accomplished this feat, the last being the thriller "Silence of the Lambs" in 1991.

The film most likely to upset "American Beauty" Sunday night is "The Cider House Rules." "The Insider," "The Green Mile" and "The Sixth Sense" were also nominated but really don't stand a chance.

"The Cider House Rules" is believed to be a strong contender, not because it is a movie worthy of winning best picture, but only because of the strong marketing program of its producer Miramax. "The Machine," as the program is called, has in recent years punched out many nominations for its films ("The Crying Game," "The English Patient," "Shakespeare in Love"). There have been so many nominations that an Web site started a rumor that there is an executive of Miramax sleeping with an executive of PriceWaterhouse Coopers (the official vote counters). But most Hollywood insiders just believe it is because of the marketing program.

If the fact that the romantic comedy "Shakespeare in Love" defeated "Saving Private Ryan" isn't enough proof of The Machine's power, "The Cider House Rules" receiving seven nominations must be. The film was not accepted very well by critics and did even worse at the box office. Many critics complained of the muddled abortion issue, which wasn't really much of a problem. It was a heartwarming story, but in a year with so many good films it is hard to believe this film deserved seven nominations.

Just a few of these other good films that were snubbed by the Academy and are deserving of an honorable mention are "Magnolia," "Being John Malkovich," "Three Kings" and "The Hurricane." Most of these films received lesser nominations in other categories.

Best Director

Sam Mendes of "American Beauty" is by far the leading candidate for winning this category. This was Mendes' first feature film after being discovered by Dreamworks executive Steven Spielberg. Mendes has already won the Director's Guild of America Award, an award that in more than 50 years has only been wrong in predicting the Oscar four times.

Other newcomer Spike Jonze (a.k.a. Adam Spiegel, heir to the Spiegel magazine fortune) is an alternative favorite for his artistic work "Being John Malkovich." Jonze was imaginative and worked on many levels, but as the miracle man in "The Princess Bride" said, "It would take a miracle." Like Jonze, Lasse Hallstrom of "Cider House Rules," M. Night Shyamalan of "The Sixth Sense" and Michael Mann of "The Insider" also stand little chance of winning. They all made great pictures out of lesser scripts, and they should remember that "it is an honor to be nominated."

Best Actor

Originally, Denzel Washington was thought to be a frontrunner for this award. He transformed a sub-par movie about a black man wrongly accused of murder into a somewhat worthwhile and interesting story. In recent weeks though, there has been numerous articles about the inaccuracy of the movie — it seems it left out a few felonies that Carter committed. This does not take away from Washington's performance, but it does hurt the perception of the film and could hurt the voting.

Kevin Spacey was the other frontrunner and it seems as though he is currently the man to beat. There is no question that Spacey's dry, sarcastic voice made "American Beauty," and he will benefit from the prognosticated sweep of "American Beauty." He has already won the Screen Actor's Guild Award, which is a correct indicator of the Oscar winner 90 percent of the time.

Best Actress

This category seems to be wide open. Annette Bening, whose husband Warren Beatty will receive a special Oscar at the awards show, seems to be a frontrunner due to the overwhelming popularity of "American Beauty" and her win at the Screen Actor's Guild Awards. But some feel her role was to small to be in the Best Actress category.

Benning is contending with Hilary Swank's gender bending role in "Boys Don't Cry" and Julianne Moore's throwback role in "The End of the Affair."

Swank has been highly praised for her meticulous role as a distraught woman/boy, and she won nearly every award outside of the Screen Actor's Guild. Her role was tough to play and award-worthy, a far cry from her days as "The Next Karate Kid" and as Steve's girlfriend on "Beverly Hills 90210." Who would have ever dreamed that an Aaron Spelling production could churn a chance to win an Academy Award?

Julianne Moore is the darkhorse of the race. Her role as a promiscuous wife was hardly deserving of a nomination, but she also had roles in four other movies in 1999, including a large role in "Magnolia." Meryl Streep was again deservedly nominated in what seems to be an annual occurrence, this time for her role in "Music of the Heart".

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Cruise is one of those life-time achievers who seems to have an asymptotic reach for the little gold trophy. He has been nominated for best actor twice for his roles in "Born on the Fourth of July" and "Jerry Maguire," has never made a bad movie, yet he has never won on Oscar.

P.T. Anderson wrote the role of TJ Mackey with Cruise and a best supporting actor Oscar in mind. The role is both active, as we see Mackey scream about seducing women, and dramatic, as we later see him unfold when his father dies in front of his eyes. It is the perfect role to win Cruise the Oscar, and has already won him a less-than-satisfying Golden Globe.

Also on Cruise's side is that "Magnolia" was snubbed from the "Best Picture" category. But negating this fact is Michael Caine, whose "The Cider House Rules" will probably not win best picture. He will receive some sympathy votes in his favor. Caine played the ether-addicted doctor in search of a successor. He is the oldest man ever nominated for best supporting actor at the age of 79. Like Cruise, he will receive some votes for his previous work ("Hannah and her Sisters," "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels"), but his role was too passive to overtake Cruise's masterpiece.

In direct opposition to Caine's age is Haley Joel Osment, who is the third youngest child to be nominated at the age of 11. He showed maturity far beyond his age in last summer's surprise box-office smash "The Sixth Sense."

Other nominees include pretty boy Jude Law, who was nominated for his role as the rich boy with a sidekick named Matt Damon in "The Talented Mr. Ripley," and Michael Clarke Duncan, who gave a stellar performance as a prisoner on death row in "The Green Mile."

Best Supporting Actress

For her part in the film "Girl, Interrupted," Angelina Jolie seems to be the consensus pick of most critics despite bad reviews and poor box-office receipts.

Catherine Keener may get some votes for "Being John Malkovich," although she owes all of her attention to Spike Jonze, who was the real hero of the film. Former "Kids" star Chloe Sevigny of "Boys Don't Cry" should also receive some attention, but not enough to win.

Best Original Screenplay

"Magnolia" is far and away the most deserving film in this category. It was original and interesting with the best dialogue of the year, and it gave the actors a chance to let it all hang out. P.T. Anderson magically wrote the combination more than nine stories into one film. It was almost three hours, but you want to know so much about the characters it doesn't seem anywhere near that long. It is a delicious treat for actors, and with the actor sector making up the largest portion of the Academy's voting population, "Magnolia" should win out.

However, it does have to upstage the giant "American Beauty," which again should benefit from the sweep factor. "American Beauty" does have the editing process working against it though. Most people probably don't know that the original screenplay ended in a trial, which if it did, would be a travesty in itself.

Best Adapted Screenplay

"The Cider House Rules" is really the only choice for winning this category. "The Machine" will be enthusiastically promoting it, and one should notice the fact that John Irving (who wrote the novel) worked for years on perfecting the screenplay. If anything, it should be a token award for not winning best picture.

The awards will be handed out this Sunday at 8 p.m. on ABC. The red carpet will be rolled and the stars will be dressed to the hilt in their designer dresses that cost more than our tuition. It should be entertaining, but don't plan on repeats of Roberto Benigni's performance from last year.

• Anything can happen with Mr. O