Predicting America's next four years
Gary Caruso
Capital Comments
Despite several nasty e-mails I received from "Notre Dame Republicans" calling me an example of what is "wrong with our country," I find that my insights from the Democratic perspective have not been mean or vindictive.
For example, I do not make issue of President "select" George W. Bush copying many of Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign tactics. From Bush's blatant plagiarism at his convention saying, "it is time for them to go," to his tactics of what former Clinton advisor Dick Morris calls "triangulation," running on stolen issues from the other party's political base.
With the inauguration tomorrow, it is time to look into the crystal ball and predict what we Democrats think the second Bush will encounter. Noting that Bush campaigned as an outsider, it is ironic that many of his second and third tier appointments are from old Republican administrations as far back as Richard Nixon. We Democrats believe that too many "old folks" will take Bush backward with old ideas rather than forward with new innovations.
An example of what Democrats consider backward thinking is the resurrection of the so-called Star Wars defense system first proposed by Ronald Reagan. It seems that his top-heavy military team — Vice President, Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense — all believe in a satellite defense program despite the end of the Cold War. Democrats expect Bush to begin pushing on Capitol Hill and earmarking funding for the effort. Democrats also envision deficit spending as a result of this expensive proposal.
While Al Gore and most Democrats opposed Bush's $1.3 trillion across-the-board tax cut, some Democrats now want Bush to "stimulate" the economy in hopes of ending the budget surpluses. They reason that by giving Bush the chance to either succeed or fail on his own, Bush's fate lies in his own hands. If he succeeds, then the country will prosper and Democrats have no future campaign issue. However, should Bush's tax plan backfire, Democrats can ride that, as well as a host of other issues, come 2004.
Many are concerned that Bush's "military trio" will push for an international isolationist policy in the name of reducing U.S. policing throughout the world with American military personnel. Speculation of drastic consequences ranges from merely losing Taiwan as a result of aggression from China to the explosion of a Russian warhead, which most likely will fall into the hands of a terrorist group. Those scenarios are but a few that experts can foresee now that the Central Intelligence Agency has published a booklet looking at the world as it may exist in the year 2015.
Trouble is also brewing with the OPEC nations reducing petroleum production by 5 percent beginning in February. During the campaign, Bush criticized Clinton for not convincing "our oil producing friends to increase production." Now that the shoe is on the other foot, many Democrats will sit back and wait to see just how effective Bush officials are in convincing "our friends." Some actually expect Bush to succeed if he can successfully invoke the memory of his father's efforts to save the region from Iraqi aggression in the early 1990s.
Politics makes for strange bedfellows and intolerant zealots. While Democrats close to the party particularly feel bitter about Bush's selection by the Supreme Court, most would not advocate drastic consequences that would harm the American public. But Democrats want Bush policies to falter so that they can offer alternatives, if not say, "we told you so."
I personally have looked into my crystal ball and seen far beyond this level of life. It is my belief that President Bush and his son, George W., are in fact, John Adams and John Quincy Adams reincarnated. Of the first eight presidents in our history, only the Adams family (pun intended) were one-term presidents. With so many similarities between younger Adams and younger Bush, I can see where the soon-to-be new President Bush can easily follow in his father's footsteps and prove my theory.
My crystal ball shows that the new president will not have any personal moral flaws like Bill Clinton, but then again will not sustain the American public's confidence either. I can see that in just a few months, Americans will miss the Clinton charm and ask themselves, "Can this guy ever put together a complex sentence?"
Four years from now Democrats will campaign on a few basic phrases. "President Bush, you said you would do this or that, and you have not. You said there is too much finger pointing in Washington, yet you blame the Democratic congress. You promised this, but have yet to deliver."
Four years from now Jeb Bush will have lost reelection in Florida in part because of those who felt they were disenfranchised, and who actually got their votes counted due to election reform.
Four years from now, regardless if Al Gore or another Democrat carries the banner for our party, Florida will be solidly in the Democratic column on election night. Four years is a long time in politics. But for Democrats, 2004 is just around the corner, and our freight train has already begun chugging down the track. John Quincy Adams, you never had it so good!
Gary J. Caruso, Notre Dame '73, today is ending his position as Congressional and Public Affairs Director in President Clinton's administration. His column appears every other Friday, and his e-mail address is Hottline@aol.com.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Observer.
All Viewpoint Stories for Friday, January 19, 2001
