Working Papers #81 - 90

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The Rise and Fall of Capital Markets in the Southern Cone

Joseph Ramos

Working Paper #81 - September 1986

Joseph Ramos is an economist (Ph.D., Columbia 1968) with 17 years of teaching and consulting experience in Latin America. He is currently with the United Nation's ECLA in Santiago, Chile. His work has generally been in macroeconomics (employment, stabilization and adjustment policies), though he also has a long-standing interest in Catholic social teaching. His latest publication was a book published by ECLA entitled Estabilización y liberalización económica en el Cono Sur (UN, 1984, Santiago).

Abstract

This paper analyzes the attempts in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay in the 1970s to solve the problem of slow growth by liberalizing the economic system. Neoconservative policymakers in these countries sought to abolish the interventionist paradigm which had prevailed since the Great Depression. They particularly criticized the previous policy of "financial repression" and argued that the capital market, the central mechanism for allocating financial resources, should not be determined by the discretional authority of the government but by the forces of supply and demand. Thus, an important part of their policy from the beginning was to create domestic capital markets and open them up to the outside world. The resulting financial systems were in a state of total collapse by the time the neoconservative experiences came to a close: Real interest rates remained high throughout the period without producing corresponding advantages and despite large capital inflows from abroad. The author agrees that the domestic capital markets were repressed and underdeveloped at the start. However, he argues that financial liberalization should not take place without first (1) stabilizing prices; (2) overcoming segmentation within the domestic capital market and between the domestic and international markets; (3) ensuring the operation of long term capital markets; (4) enforcing banking regulations; and (5) introducing alternative mechanisms to ensure that liberalizing interest rates will in fact increase national savings and investment rather than simply releasing consumption demand.

Resumen

Este trabajo analiza los esfuerzos en Argentina, Chile y Uruguay en los años setentas por resolver el problema del lento crecimiento mediante la liberalización del sistema económico. Las políticas neoconservadoras de estos países procuraron abolir el paradigma intervencionista que había prevalecido desde la Gran Depresión. Los equipos económicos particularmente criticaron la política anterior de "represión financiera" y argumentaron que el mercado del capital, el mecanismo central para asignar los recursos financieros, no debería ser determinado por la autoridad discrecional del gobierno, sino por las fuerzas de la oferta y la demanda. Así, una parte importante de su política, desde el principio, fue la de crear mercados nacionales de capital y abrirlos al mundo exterior. Cuando las experiencias neoconservadoras llegaron a su conclusión los sistemas financieros se encontraban en un estado de colapso total: las tasas de interés real permanecieron altas durante todo el período sin producir las ventajas correspondientes y a pesar de las grandes afluencias de capital del extranjero. El autor está de acuerdo en que los mercados nacionales de capital se encontraban reprimidos y subdesarrollados al principio. Sin embargo, argumenta que la liberalización financiera no debería tener lugar sin primero (1) estabilizar los precios; (2) superar la segmentación dentro del mercado nacional de capital y entre los mercados nacional e internacional; (3) asegurar la operación de mercados de capital a largo plazo; (4) hacer valer los reglamentos bancarios; (5) introducir mecanismos alternativos para asegurar que la liberalización de las tasas de interés de hecho incremente el ahorro y la inversión nacionales, en vez de simplemente liberar la demanda de consumo.

(52 pages)

Mexico: The Debt Crisis And Options For Development Strategy

Kwan S. Kim

Working Paper #82 - September 1986

Kwan S. Kim is Associate Professor of Economics and faculty fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He has served as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. He has published extensively in the areas of trade and development, planning and industrialization, with a special interest in East Africa, East Asia and, recently, Mexico. He is editor of Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America. His recent writings include Política industrial y desarrollo en Corea del Sur (Mexico City: NAFINSA and UNIDO, 1985).

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the conference on External Debt in Mexico, UNAM, Mexico City, May 18-22, 1986.

Abstract

This paper highlights elements of macroeconomic policy issues facing Mexico in coping with its debt crisis. The author begins with a brief introduction to the origins and evolution of the crisis, and goes on to provide an overview of its socioeconomic impacts in Mexico and an examination of its implications for Mexico's future development. The concluding section of the paper critically evaluates Mexico's options for development strategy. One aspect of the debt crisis which particularly concerns the author is the economic interdependence between Mexico and its neighbor, the United States, and consequently the need for their mutual collaboration if the crisis is to be resolved.

Resumen

Este ensayo destaca elementos de la política macroeconómica que enfrenta México debido a su deuda externa. Empezando con un sumario de los orígenes y de la evolución de la crisis, nos provee con una vista general de los impactos económicos de la deuda externa en México y examina sus implicaciones para su futuro desarrollo. El trabajo evalua de forma crítica las opciones de México para una estrategia de desarrollo. Un aspecto de la deuda externa que se enfatiza es la interdependencia económica entre México y los Estados Unidos, y por lo tanto, la necesidad de una mutua colaboración en la resolución de esta crisis.

(26 pages)

Religion and Popular Protest in Latin America

Daniel H. Levine and Scott Mainwaring

Working Paper #83 - September 1986

Daniel H. Levine is Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan. He is author of Conflict and Political Change in Venezuela (Princeton University Press, 1973) and Religion and Politics in Latin America: The Catholic Church in Venezuela and Colombia (Princeton University Press, 1981), as well as editor of Churches and Politics in Latin America (Sage, 1980) and Religion and Political Conflict in Latin America (University of North Carolina Press, 1986).

Scott Mainwaring is Assistant Professor of Government and Member of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He is author of The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1985 (Stanford University Press, 1986).

The authors wish to thank Thomas Bruneau, Caroline Domingo, Susan Eckstein, Suzanne Marilley, Peter Walshe, and Alexander Wilde for helpful criticisms.

Abstract

For centuries, religion stood as a bulwark for conservatism in Latin America. In recent decades, this has changed, as the Catholic Church in a number of countries has actively supported and legitimated popular protest. However, the nature of ecclesiastical change and the relationship between the Church and popular protest differ sharply from one country to the next. This paper examines the relationship between the Church (especially its ecclesial base communities, or CEBs) and popular protest, focusing on two sharply contrasting cases. In Brazil, Church progressives have played a dominant role, and in Colombia, conservative Church leaders have systematically prevented grassroots Church groups from participating actively in popular protest. The paper begins with some theoretical reflections on the relationship between the institutional and popular components of the Church, and on the relationship between informal protest and institutional politics. The authors then provide an overview of the nature, origins, and religious character of CEBs. Through individual life histories, they then analyze the role of CEBs in empowering popular protest in Brazil, and the tight ecclesiastical control over popular Church groups in Colombia.

Resumen

Por siglos, la religión ha permanecido como un baluarte de conservadurismo en Latinoamérica. En décadas recientes esto ha cambiado, ya que la Iglesia Católica en varios países ha apoyado y legitimado activamente la protesta popular. Sin embargo, la naturaleza del cambio eclesial y la relación entre la Iglesia y la protesta popular difieren mucho de un país a otro. Este ensayo examina la relación entre la Iglesia (especialmente sus comunidades eclesiales de base, "CEBs") y la protesta popular, enfocando dos casos contrastantes. En Brasil, religiosos progresistas han jugado un papel predominante, mientras que en Colombia, líderes eclesiásticos conservadores han impedido sistemáticamente la participación activa en la protesta popular de las CEBs. El ensayo comienza con algunas reflexiones teóricas sobre la relación entre los componentes institucionales de la Iglesia y lo popular, y sobre la relación entre la protesta informal y la política institucional. Los autores entonces pasan a dar una vista sintética de la naturaleza, los orígenes, y el carácter religioso de las CEBs. A través de historias individuales, ellos analizan el rol de las CEBs en el fortalecimiento de la protesta popular en Brasil y el control eclesiástico ejercido sobre los grupos religiosos populares en Colombia.

(54 pages)

Urban Popular Movements, Identity, and Democratization in Brazil

Scott Mainwaring

Working Paper # 84 - October 1986

Scott Mainwaring is Assistant Professor of Government and Member of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. His book, The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1985, was published by Stanford University Press in 1986. He has published numerous articles on transitions to democracy, social movements, and Latin American politics.

Caroline Domingo, Peter Evans, Frances Hagopian, Margaret Keck, Daniel Levine, Guillermo O'Donnell, and Eduardo Viola provided helpful criticisms.

Abstract

This paper addresses the political impact and limits of grassroots popular movements in Brazil during the past decade. In the second half of the 1970s, as Brazil's military regime promoted a gradual process of political liberalization, grassroots popular movements burgeoned, generating widespread hopes among the forces that opposed the regime. Nearly a decade after this initial wave of optimism, it has become apparent that the earlier expectations have not been born out. The author analyzes why this has been the case. He argues that although a wide amalgam of social movements did oppose the military regime and did work towards democratization, their enormous heterogeneity made unity difficult to attain, except for very short times and for very specific conditions. Despite egregious poverty and inequalities, the popular classes have had difficulty creating a political identity based on common interests. Moreover, the state has intentionally pursued a policy of dividing social movements, and political parties have generally reinforced the fragmentation and isolation of grassroots movements. While underscoring these limits in grassroots movements, the author also argues that they have helped the popular classes conquer a sense of common identity and citizenship, and that they have helped put popular issues on the political agenda to a greater extent than in previous years.

Resumen

Este ensayo considera el impacto político y las limitaciones políticas de los movimientos populares de base en Brasil durante la década pasada. Durante la segunda mitad de la década de los setenta, cuando el régimen militar de Brasil promovía un proceso gradual de liberalización política, movimientos populares de base se fortalecieron, generando amplias esperanzas entre las fuerzas que se oponían al régimen. Cerca de una década después de esta onda inicial de optimismo, es aparente que las expectativas de antes no se han realizado. El autor analiza el por qué de este caso. Arguye que aunque una amplia amalgama de movimientos sociales se opuso al régimen militar y trabajó a favor de la democratización, su enorme heterogeneidad hizo difícil lograr la unidad, a no ser por períodos de tiempo muy cortos y en condiciones muy específicas. A pesar de la tremenda pobreza y la desigualdad que marcan la sociedad brasileña, para las clases populares les ha sido muy difícil crear una identidad política basada en intereses comunes. Por otra parte, el estado ha seguido intencionadamente una política de división de movimientos sociales, y los partidos políticos generalmente han reforzado la fragmentación y aislación de los movimientos populares. Mientras subraya estas limitaciones en los movimientos populares de base, el autor también arguye que ellos han ayudado a las clases populares a conquistar un sentido de ciudadanía común, y que han ayudado a colocar los asuntos populares en la agenda política en un grado mayor que en años anteriores.

(36 pages)

Logics of Union Action in Chile

Guillermo Campero and René Cortázar

Working Paper #85 - October 1986

Guillermo Campero received his Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of Paris. He is Academic Director of ILET, ILO expert in Labor Relations and has been a visiting professor at the Universidad Autónoma de México and the University of Paris. His main research area is the sociology of social movements.

René Cortázar received his Ph.D. in Economics from MIT. He is a researcher at CIEPLAN, and has been a visiting professor at the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro and a visiting fellow of the Kellogg Institute in 1983, 1984 and again in 1986. His main research areas are labor economics and macroeconomics.

This work forms part of CIEPLAN's research in the area of "Development Strategies and Democracy," and received the support of the Ford Foundation. A previous version was presented at the workshop on "Labor Relations in Contemporary Latin America," organized by the Kellogg Institute of the University of Notre Dame in March 1985; at the "CLACSO Labor Movement Commission Seminar" in May 1985, and at a CIEPLAN seminar. We are grateful for the numerous comments we received from the participants in these events.

Abstract

The acute crisis Chile faces at present has made the subjects of democratic alternatives and reconstruction a source of renewed concern. With regard to the latter, greater emphasis is being placed on perspectives upholding the need for the so-called "concertation" between the different social and political groups, with an aim to ensure adequate conditions of governability fora country that will remain under strong political and social tensions in the future, mainly as a result of the legacy of the authoritarian regime. From this perspective, we shall attempt to analyze the present situation of the trade union movement, its recent historical antecedents and its possible future evolution. Some of the questions that arise are: What were the logics of union action in the past? Will trade unions constitute one of the fundamental hubs of social and political "concertation" in Chile? What course of action will they choose to follow? What type of relations will they establish with the entrepreneurs and the political system? What social orientation will characterize union activity in the future? In the first section, we outline some of the elements that must be taken into account in order to establish a diagnosis of trade unionism, both in its present and pre-1973 situation. In the second section, a prospective analysis of union activity is developed. In both cases the aim is to set forth tentative hypotheses and to provide some possible interpretations of the trade union phenomenon, and on no account to present an air-tight case. Lastly, we should like to point out that this study does not contemplate agricultural or rural unionism. This subject has a specificity and complexity of its own, and will be analyzed in future research.

Resumen

La aguda crisis por la que atraviesa Chile en la actualidad ha hecho rebrotar con fuerza los temas de las alternativas y la reconstrucción democrática. Dentro de este último, parecen desarrollarse con énfasis aquellas perspectivas que enfatizan la necesidad de la concertación entre los diversos actores sociales y políticos, de modo de asegurar condiciones de gobernabilidad a un país que, principalmente como resultado de las herencias que le deja el régimen autoritario, seguirá sometido en el futuro a fuertes tensiones políticas y sociales. Es en esa perspectiva que intentamos analizar la situación actual del movimiento sindical, sus antecedentes históricos recientes y su posible evolución futura. ¿Cuáles fueron las lógicas de acción sindical del sindicalismo en el pasado? ¿Se constituirá el movimiento sindical en uno de los ejes fundamentales de esa buscada concertación social y política en Chile? ¿Cuáles serán las orientaciones para la acción sindical, el tipo de relación con los empresarios y con el sistema político y la orientación societal que caracterizarán el movimiento sindical en el futuro? En una primera sección, reseñamos algunos elementos para un diagnóstico del sindicalismo, tanto de su situación actual como de aquélla previa a 1973. En la segunda sección se desarrolla un análisis prospectivo del movimiento sindical. En ambos casos se trata de plantear hipóteses tentativas y de sugerir algunas posibles interpretaciones del fenómeno sindical, más que de intentar demostraciones rigurosas. Por último, cabe mencionar que en este trabajo no nos hermos referido al sindicalismo agrícola o campesino, a pesar de su enorme importancia. Dada su especificidad y complejidad optamos por diferir su análisis para futuros estudios.

(63 pages)

Humanitarianism and Politics in Central America

Gil Loescher

Working Paper #86 - November 1986

Gil Loescher is an associate professor in the Department of Government and International Studies and a departmental fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He recently co-authored Calculated Kindness: Refugees and America's Half-Open Door (The Free Press, 1986).

Abstract

Refugee assistance, in common with other humanitarian work, tends to be perceived as somehow apart from politics. However, as this paper demonstrates, the treatment of refugees and indeed their very existence are intensely political issues. The author concentrates on refugee policy in Central America, examining in detail the situation of refugees in Mexico, Honduras and Costa Rica-the various actors, their interests, and the effects on them of geopolitics, ideology and ethnic politics. He analyzes the attitude of the United States and its impact, the role of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the problems faced by voluntary agencies in their struggle for humanitarian "space," and the efforts of the refugee groups themselves, and concludes that only the return of peace and stability to Central America will ensure the protection of the region's refugees.

Resumen

La asistencia a refugiados, como otras formas de trabajo humanitario, tiende a ser percibida como algo aparte de la política. Sin embargo como lo demuestra este ensayo, la ayudo a los refugiados y, hasta la existencia de los mismos, son asuntos intensamente políticos. El autor analiza la política de refugiados en América Central, examinando con detalle la situación de refugiados en México, Honduras y Costa Rica-los varios actores, sus intereses y los efectos sobre ellos de la geopolítica, la ideología y la política étnica. Se describe la actitud de los Estados Unidos y su impacto, el rol del Alto Comisionado para Refugiados de las Naciones Unidas, los problemas afrontados por agencias de voluntarios en su lucha por un "espacio humanitario" y los esfuerzos de los grupos de los mismos refugiados. Concluye que solamente el regreso de la paz y la estabilidad en América Central asequrará la protección de los refugiados en esa región.

(32 pages)

Issues and Perspectives in Tanzanian Industrial Development-
With Special Reference to the Role of SADCC

Kwan S. Kim

Working Paper #87 - December 1986

Kwan S. Kim is Associate Professor of Economics and faculty fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He has served as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. He has published extensively in the areas of trade and development, and planning and industrialization, with a special interest in East Africa, East Asia and, recently, Mexico. He is editor of Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America. His recent writings include Política industrial y desarrollo en Corea del Sur (Mexico City: NAFINSA and UNIDO, 1985).

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the conference on "Tanzania after Nyerere," organized by the School of Oriental and African Studies, London University, June 26-27, 1986. The author wishes to acknowledge the valuable comments of Professors Walter Elkan, Ian Livingstone and Peter Walshe. Some of the data and information were collected while the author was on a recent USAID mission in Tanzania, and he wishes to thank S. Tareq and P. Santoso for assisting in research and Dr. Chandra Hardy of the World Bank for providing relevant materials. The views expressed in the paper are solely those of the author.

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the evaluation of Tanzania's industrialization strategies since 1967. After a brief review of the origins and evolution of past industrial strategies, it explores their implications for the emerging patterns of industrial development, examining in particular the structural characteristics and the nature of contradictions of Tanzanian industries. The focus of the paper is to trace causes for the industry's inadequate performance and to critically reevaluate past and current industrial policies, at the same time suggesting future options for Tanzania. In this context, the paper identifies the areas of potential contribution the Southern African regional economic cooperation scheme (SADCC) could make for Tanzanian industrial development. Other contextual issues discussed include roles of public vs. private enterprises and of small-scale vs. large-scale firms; choice of technologies; and human and physical infrastructural developments. Although the paper focuses on the longer-term perspectives, the analysis also deals with the short-term adjustment problems in coping with the current debt crisis.

Resumen

Este ensayo examina las estrategias de industrialización en Tanzania desde 1967. Después de un breve repaso sobre los orígenes y la evolución de las estrategias industriales del pasado, explora sus implicaciones para los padrones emergentes del desarrollo industrial, examinando en particular la estructura característica y la naturaleza de la contradicción de las industrias en Tanzania. Se averigua las causas del desempeño inadecuado de la industria y se hace una revaluación crítica de la política industrial no solo del presente sino también del pasado, y a la vez sugiere diferentes opciones para el futuro de Tanzania. En este contexto, el trabajo identifica los aportes potenciales de la cooperación económica regional Sur Africana (SADCC) para el desarrollo industrial de Tanzania. También se discute el papel de la empresa pública versus la privada y de las firmas de pequeña escala versus las de grande escala; las opciones tecnológicas; y la infrasructura humana y física. Aunque el ensayo focaliza las perspectivas a largo plazo, también trata problemas de ajuste de corto plazo para enfrentar la presente deuda externa.

(43 pages)

The Political Economy of Latin American Development: Seven Exercises in Retrospection

Albert O. Hirschman

Working Paper #88 - December 1986

This paper is a collaborative publication with The Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California, San Diego (Working Paper No. CE-03). The author wishes to express his gratitude to the Ford Foundation for the travel grant that supported his field interviewing in Latin America in April-May, 1986, and especially to the Foundation's representatives in Rio de Janeiro and Mexico for their helpfulness. He is also indebted to his Latin American friends and interlocutors for their readiness to share information and ideas.

The Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego, and the Helen Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame are extremely pleased to be making this working paper by Albert O. Hirschman available to the international scholarly and policy-making community.

This paper resulted from the most recent award of the Kalman Silvert Presidents' Prize, which is presented every 18 months by the Latin American Studies Association to a senior member of the profession who has made a distinguished lifetime contribution to the study of Latin America and to the advancement of the Latin American Studies profession generally. Albert Hirschman, Professor of Social Science, Emeritus, at the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, was selected to receive the 1986 Silvert Award by a committee consisting of past LASA Presidents Wayne Cornelius (Chair), Helen Safa, and Peter Smith, and the current editor of the Latin American Research Review, Gilbert Merkx.

In its original form, this paper was requested by the Silvert Award committee for presentation at the 20th Anniversary International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association in Boston, Massachusetts, October 24, 1986. Professor Hirschman's analysis draws upon interviews which he conducted during a two-month field research trip to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico in April-May, 1986, supported by a travel grant from the Ford Foundation.

The issues addressed in this paper are timely and controversial. Professor Hirschman's analysis is characteristically fresh and provocative, and merits wide attention as a corrective to much of what passes as the conventional wisdom on Latin America's current economic crisis.

Wayne A. Cornelius
Director
Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies

(41 pages)

Macro Policy in a Dollarized Economy: The Experience of Bolivia

Kenneth P. Jameson

Working Paper #89 - December 1986

Kenneth P. Jameson, is a faculty fellow of the Kellogg Institute and a professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Notre Dame. The author would like to acknowledge the Jesse Jones Faculty Research Travel Fund of the University of Notre Dame for partial support of this research.

Abstract

Currency substitution, or dollarization, has become a concern of macroeconomic policy in Latin America because of its impact on exchange rates and on the money supply. This paper reviews the experience of Bolivia and concludes that efforts to limit financial liberalization and currency substitution in a country with a weak state apparatus are likely to be destabilizing. The author examines the process of dollarization in Bolivia, details the effort to dedollarize the economy in 1982, and then traces the effects of the program on the development of informal exchange markets, on the banking system, and on the foreign exchange market.

Resumen

La sustitución de la moneda, o dolarización, ha sido una preocupación de la política macroeconómica en Latinoamérica debido a su impacto en las tasas de cambio y en la oferta monetaria. Este ensayo reflexiona sobre la experiencia de Bolivia y concluye que el esfuerzo para limitar la liberalización financiera y la sustitución de la moneda en un país con un aparato estatal débil, es probable que sea desestabilizador. El autor analiza el proceso de dolarización en Bolivia, detalla los esfuerzos para desdolarizar la economía en 1982 y traza los efectos de este esfuerzo sobre los mercados informales de cambio, el sistema bancario y el mercado de divisas.

(23 pages)

The Structure and Performance of International Banking During the 1970s and its Impact on the Crisis of Latin America

Robert Devlin

Working Paper #90 - January 1987

Robert Devlin has been an economist in the Economic Development Division of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, Chile, since 1975. He has a Ph.D. in Economics from the American University in Washington, D.C., and has been working for the last few years on the subject of private banks, debt adjustment, and crisis in Latin America. He was a fellow of the Kellogg Institute in the fall semester, 1985.

Research for this paper received support from the Corporación de Investigaciones Económicas para América Latina (CIEPLAN) in Santiago, Chile, the Kellogg Institute of the University of Notre Dame, and the United Nations. The author is especially grateful to R. Ffrench-Davis, M. Marfan, J. Ramos, J. Weaver and J. Willoughby for their extensive comments on the manuscript. Helpful observations were also received from J.P. Arellano, E. Bartell, CSC., J. Estevez, D. Goulet, K. Jameson, J. Marshall, D. Ruccio, D. Wilson, and members of the Workshop on International Economics of CIEPLAN.

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of international private banks and their role as an endogenous source of crisis in Latin America during the 1970s. The analysis first summarizes an interpretation of private banking at the international level that was quite fashionable in the '70s. This interpretation rests on the tradition of portfolio theory, and projects banks as efficient, risk conscious, arm's length lenders, in an atomistic market which maximizes a risk-return calculus. In these circumstances borrowers face conventional upward sloping supply curves and encounter the much touted "discipline of the marketplace." This conventional view is then contrasted with an alternative institutional focus: the bank as a transnational firm in an oligopolistic market, which is destablized by new entrants. Coupled with an examination of how banks institutionally translate risk assessment into credit volume and price, this allows us to illustrate how permissiveness rather than discipline could be the expected outcome of the banking expansion of the 1970s. It also provides insight into the supply-side dynamics underlying overindebtedness, and thereby begins to lay a technical foundation supporting the Latin American assertion of coresponsibility in the crisis.

Resumen

Este ensaya analiza el comportamiento de los bancos privados internacionales y su rol como fuente endógena de crisis en Latinoamérica durante los setenta. El análisis resume una interpretación de los bancos privados a nivel internacional que estuvo muy de moda en los setenta, basada en la teoría de portafolio, que percibe los bancos como eficientes, conscientes de riesgos, prestamistas a distancia en un mercado atomístico, el cual acrecenta al máximo el cálculo de riesgo-ganancia. En estas circunstancias los prestatarios confrontan curvas ascendentes convencionales de la oferta y encuentran la renombrada "disciplina del mercado." La perspectiva convencional es entonces contrastada con un enfoque institucional alternativo: el banco como empresa transnacional en un mercado oligopólico, el cual se desestabiliza por nuevos postulantes. Junto con un análisis de cómo los bancos institucionalmente traducen la determinación del riesgo en un volúmen de crédito y precio, esto nos permite ilustrar cómo la tolerancia y no la disciplina era el resultado a esperarse de la expansión bancaria de los setenta. Ilumina también la dinámica de la oferta que subyace al sobreendeudamiento, y empieza a establecer un fundamento técnico para apoyar la aserción latinoamericana de una responsabilidad compartida para la crisis.

(70 pages)