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Finance 30220

Macroeconomic Analysis

"...it is the econometric tradition, or more precisely, the 'theory of economic policy' based on this tradition, which is in need of major revision.  More particularly, I shall argue that the features which lead to success in short term forecasting are unrelated to quantitative policy evaluation, that the major econometric models are designed to perform the former task only, and that simulations using these models can, in principle, provide no useful information as to the actual consequences of alternative economic policies."         

-Robert E. Lucas Jr. ("Econometric Policy Evaluations: A Critique", 1976

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Key Economic Indicators
  Period Latest Mkt. Exp. Prev.
• Consumer Confidence Dec 52.9 53.0 50.6
• Retail sales Nov 1.3% 0.6% 1.1%
• GDP Q3(F) 2.2% 2.8% 2.8%
• GDP Deflator Q3(F) 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%
•ISM Index Dec 55.9 54.3 53.6
•Unemployment Rate Dec 10.0% 10.06%

10.0%
•Non Farm Payrolls  Dec -85K 0K 4K
•CPI Inflation Nov 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
•Core CPI Inflation Nov 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
•Trade Balance Oct -$32.9B -$36.8B -$35.7B

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