Measuring Individual Activist Orientation
In a separate line of research, I have developed a new deterministic diffusion model
for collective violence in the tradition of classical diffusion analyses. This model
is called the "Opposing Forces Diffusion Model," and provides an advances over previous
model because it treats provocation and repression as two seperately diffusion
phenomena. The model is introduced in "The Opposing Forces Diffusion Model: A Theory
of Collective Violence Diffusion," and its empirical advantages over previous
models are documented more fully using empirical and simulated data in "A Comparative
Test of Three Diffusion Models for Collective Violence" and "Systematic Testing of
Deterministic Diffusion Models."
Information on the Ideological Foundations project will be posted soon.
Riot Related
Beyond diffusion analysis, my riot research is also concerned with structural and
economic conditions that contribute to riot propensity. One paper recently published
in the American Sociological Review, ("Racial Rioting in the 1960s: An Event History
Analysis of Local Conditions") finds support for economic competition models. My most
recent riot research (conducted with advance graduate student Mike Davern) examines the
relevance of local economic conditions for campus race riots (as opposed to the urban
"ghetto" riots). This research is also examining diffusion influences between
campuses and urban areas. Another graduate student, Mike Gibbons, is working with
me on a project examining weather patterns and rioting. This project is producing
interesting new results regarding the effects of temperature, humidity, and region on
riot rates. Media Bias in the Coverage of Protests, Demonstrations, and Collective Violence
Along with Pam Oliver and other collaborators at the University of Wisconsin,
I continue to work on a large project tracking the media coverage of protests
and demonstrations. This is a long-term project that has involved collecting
traces of protest through multiple sources including mulitple police agencies, other
governmental bodies, newspapers, and television news. The data gathering process
was a massive undertaking and the results of this study are just now beginning
to be compiled. A paper examining all events and sources for Madison, WI for 1994
reports the first set of results from this project ("Media Coverage of Political
and Nonpolitical Public Events").
Measuring Individual Activist Orientation
This project is concerned with identifying the sources and correlates of
"activist orientation." In other words, who thinks of themself as an activist,
why, and what impact does this have on their behavior. The first step in the
process was to produce a valid and reliable measure of activist orientation that
we call the Activist Orientation Scale. The development of this scale, undertaken
with psychologist Alexandra Corning, is documented in "Activist Orientation and its
Relationship to Relative Deprivation, Locus of Control, and Activist Behavior."
Studies of the predictors of activist orientation using this scale are currently
under way.
Game Theory
N-person game theory is a mathematical method of examining competition and cooperation
between multiple actors. Using these games, we can examine underlying
dimensions of important social processes such as conflict resolution, the
provision of public goods, decision-making in risky situations, and the
formation of coalitions of actors in competitive situations. My research in this
area is currently focused on the testing and refinement of a new theory or
solution concept called the Central Union Theory. This solution concept
represents an advance over others in it class for a number of reasons but
most importantly because it make specific probabilistic predictions about
which coaltions will form. Two papers written with H. Andrew Michener are in
press and provide initial competitive
tests demonstrating the effectiveness of the theory ("A Test of Probabilistic Coalition
Structure Theories in 3-Person Sidepayment Games" in Theory and Decision and
"Probabilistic Coalition Structure Theories: A Test in 4-Person Superadditive
Sidepayment Games" in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. This fall
semester, graduate student Mike Gibbons and I will be collecting a new data set
for a study of the CU Theory focusing specifically on the coalition formation
issue.
Methodological Issues
As research progresses, new methodological issues inevitably arise. Three
papers are currently under way. The first demonstrates a series of techniques
to thoroughly examine and test deterministic diffusion models. The second
examines number of goodness-of-fit indexes used to evaluate the predictions of
game theory solution concepts. These indexes incorporate both the accuracy of
predictions about payoffs to players and predictions about coalition structure
formation. The third discusses the use of log-linear
event history models with historical data pointing out the special considerations
which must be invoked with the sort of survival data historians are most likely
to encounter.