Lindley War Prediction Table, November 27, 2000
| Factor Present? | Russia? | Elsewhere? (1) | WWI |
| Rapidly shifting power? | X | ||
| Arms races? | X | ||
| All/Nothing mobilization? | X | ||
| Offense dominance? (real and/or perceived) | X | ||
| Tight alliances? | X | ||
| Aggressive leadership? | X | ||
| Militarism? | X | ||
| Malignant nationalism? | X | ||
| Identity/Ethnic issues? | |||
| Contested territory? | ? | ||
| Ethnic brethren abroad? | |||
| State backed into corner? | ? | ||
| Historical grievances? | X | ||
| Malignant historical lessons and analogies? | ? | ||
| Severe Misperceptions? | X | ||
| Societal/Economic turmoil? | |||
| Scapegoating? | |||
| Factors particular (mostly) to ethnic conflict: | |||
| Media monopoly? | |||
| Weak social and political institutions? | |||
| Interspersed population? | |||
|
Always Assess: |
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| Useable Capability? | X | ||
| Credible Intentions? | X | ||
Key: the more boxes you check, the more likely war becomes. Repeat exercise often to avoid surprise.
1. China? Terrorists? India/Pakistan? China/India? Middle East? Ethnic Groups?