Working Papers #1 - #10Click Working Paper title to download (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader). Please note, not all papers are available for download at this time. Enfoques Ortodojos para el Ajuste Economico de Corto Plazo: Lecciones de la Experiencia y Temas de Investigacion (*)Alejandro Foxley Working Paper #1 - December 1983 Alejandro Foxley holds the Helen Kellogg Institute Chair of International Development and is a professor economics. He is also associate editor of the Journal of Development Economics and of El Trimestre Economico, Mexico, and is a member of the Executive Committee, Latin American Council of the Social Sciences (CLACSO). His most recent book, Latin American Experiments in Neoconservative Economics, was published in June 1983 by the University of California Press. Appointed member Executive Committee International Economic Association (IEA) for period 1983-1986. The Committee will be presided by Professor Kenneth Arrow, a Nobel Laureate in Economics from Stanford University. Abstract This paper deals with short-term macro-economic adjustment policies in countries with high rates of inflation. It concentrates on one type of adjustment policies, identified as "orthodox" or "monetarist" stabilization policies, and focuses on Latin American Southern Cone type of economies. Although we describe a stylized case in the paper, we make clear in the Appendix that this stylized case is based on empirical facts observed in post-1973 Chile and post-1976 Argentina. The first section of the paper identifies the theoretical framework and three principal phases observed in current orthodox adjustment policies in Latin America. Phase One is characterized by deregulation of prices, monetary contraction, and exchange rate devaluation. The theoretical reference for this phase is the so-called "closed economy monetarism." Phase Two corresponds to price de-indexation and reflects an attempt to rapidly reduce the rate of inflation, which proved unfeasible under Phase One policies. The nominal exchange rate and public utilities rate lag behind inflation, causing a real deterioration in the value of these variable, which is reinforced by a drastic reduction in tariffs. Phase Three is achieved once the domestic rate of inflation approaches international inflationary rates. Then, the nominal exchange rate is fixed and, under the assumption of the small open economy model, full automatic adjustment of the economy is expected. The theoretical basis for this phase is the so-called monetary approach to the balance of payments, or open economy monetarism. The second section of the paper examines the behavior of our stylized economy vis-à-vis these various policy approaches. Phase One proves successful in turning around the deficitary balance of payments but fails in bringing the rate of inflation down significantly. Contractionary demand policies result in severe reduction in output and employment levels rather than in a deceleration of inflation. Excess supply in the goods and labor markets induce imbalance in other markets as well. Interest rates go up, typically four or five times the international rate in real terms, as a result of monetary contraction and sustained demand for credit on the part of firms in order to finance their stocks during what they perceive as a short-lived recession. This phase ends with generalized disequilibrium in the economy. Phase Two, "price de-indexation," may lead to a successful outcome in terms of reducing inflation and in this case, it leads to Phase Three. An alternative scenario is possible, however, in which the rate of domestic inflation does not converge to the international one. Phase Three begins with positive signs. Fixing the exchange rate has an immediate effect on domestic prices and inflation goes down to an "acceptable" two-digital level. Given slightly expansionary monetary policy in nominal terms and nominal wage readjustment geared to past inflation, real cash balances and real wages go up. Output picks up and the economy shows signs of coming out of the recession. Financial de-regulation and opening up to external credit produce a massive inflow of short and medium term financial capital that provides an additional stimulus to effective demand in the economy. But the real exchange rate deteriorates sharply due to a persistent divergence between domestic and international rates of inflation, and the economy runs a large deficit in the current account, matched by a surplus in the capital account. The process continues until the size of the current account deficit makes the fixed exchange rate policy not credible. Debt indicators also deteriorate sharply. These factors first induce a slowing down in the inflow of foreign funds and eventually a net outflow. The government is then forced to devalue, but the devaluation comes too late and is perceived by economic agents as insufficient. A run against the Peso in now underway, which shows in an accelerating loss of foreign exchange reserves. In order to stop the process, the government decides on drastic contractionary measures that inaugurate a new and deeper recession. In desperation, the government also resorts to the same type of controls that the monetarist, free-market policy had been designed to eliminate in the first place. Some lessons from this experience are drawn in the third section of this paper, where we also indicate some of the themes of high priority on a research agenda on the subject. An appendix presents an empirical study of the Chilean and Argentine cases that served as background for this paper. (42 pages)
Democracia en la Argentina: micro y macroGuillermo O'Donnell Working Paper #2 - December 1983 The original version of this paper was prepared for the meeting on "Political System and Democratization," organized by the Asociación de Estudios de la Realidad Argentina (AERA), Buenos Aires, August 1983. Guillermo O'Donnell, the Academic Director of the Kellogg Institute, holds the Helen Kellogg Chair in International Studies and is a Professor in the Departments of Government and Sociology. he is also a Fellow of IUPERJ, Rio de Janeiro. His most recent book, El Estado Burocrático Autoritario, 1966-73; Triunfos, Derrotas y Crisis was published by Editorial de Belgrano, Buenos Aires, in 1982. It was published in English by the University of California Press, Berkeley as Bureaucratic Authoritarianism: Argentina 1966-1973 in Comparative Perspective (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988). Abstract In this paper the author discusses some results of an unorthodox research project carried out with Cecilia Galli about aspects of daily life in Buenos Aires in 1979, during the aegis of the authoritarian regime which came to power in 1976. The paper's first argument is that for many of those who were interviewed, the uncertainty, violence, and capilar character of the political repression of that period had important consequences in causing a depoliticization and (unconscious) decision to overlook the worst aspects of the repression. The second argument is that, even though everything suggests that these characteristics have changed in recent years and notwithstanding the striking failure of the military regime in other areas, the repression may have had subtle but important consequences on the level of authoritarianism and repressiveness present in different social contexts. The essay finishes arguing that although greater societal democratization is neither a necessary nor sufficient conditions for the implementation of a democratic regime, it may be a necessary condition for its long term consolidation and extension. Resume En este ensayo el autor discute algunos resultados de una poco ortodoxa investigación que llevó a cabo, junto con Cecília Galli, sobre aspectos de la vida cotidiana en Buenos Aires en 1979, durante el auge del régimen autoritario implantado en 1976. El primer argumento del texto es que la incertidumbre, violencia y capilaridad de la represión política por entonces aplicada, tuvo importantes consecuencias en cuanto al agudo grado de despolitización y decisión (inconsciente) de ignorar los peores aspectos de esa represión por parte de no pocos de los entrevistados. El segundo argumento es que, si bien todo indica que esas características se han modificado en los últimos tiempos, no debe dejarse de lado la posibilidad de que, sin perjuicio del estrepitoso fracaso de aguél régimen en otros planos, la mencionada represión puede haber tenido sutiles pero importantes consecuencias en los grados de autoritarismo y represividad existantes en diversos contextos sociales. El ensayo termina argumentando que, si bien es claro que una mayor democraticidad de la sociedad no es condición necesaria ni suficiente para la implantación de un regimen democrático, bien puede ser condición necesaria para su consolidación y extensón a más largo plazo. (25 pages)
Strategy, Institutions and "The Autonomy of the Political"Fábio Wanderley Reis Working Paper #3 - December 1983 This paper was originally presented to the session on "Representation, the Institutional and the Autonomy of the Political" at the International Political Science Association, Rio de Janeiro World Congress, August 9-14, 1982. Members of that study group were also at the conference on "Issues on Democracy and Democratization: North and South," held in November 1983 at the Kellogg Institute, where some of the problems addressed in the paper were again discussed. Scott Mainwaring kindly tried to improve my English prose, but should not be blamed for the result. Dr. Fábio Wanderley Reis received his M.A. (1970) and his Ph.D. (1974) in Political Science from Harvard University. He holds the rank of Professor at the Universidad Federal de Minas Gerais in Brazil. Dr. Wanderley Reis was Faculty Fellow at the Kellogg Institute for the Fall 1983 semester. Former President of the National Association for Post-Graduate Studies and Research in the Social Sciences, he has published extensively on Brazilian politics. His most recent work, Social Processes in Post-1964 Brazil, is co-authored with Bernardo Sorj et al., and was published by Manchester University Press. Abstract As its ultimate objective, this paper attempts to place in a more fruitful perspective the comparative study of problems linked to authoritarianism in different forms, particularly the apparent convergences between some Latin American and European state structures, the central theme of the working group of the 1982 World Congress of the International Political Science Association for which the paper was originally written. The paper begins with an attempt to reexamine the notion of politics, based on the exploration of the consequences of known propositions of Jürgen Habermas. From there it moves to the discussion of problems connected to formulate the question of the relationships between different analytic "dimensions," particularly the contrast between the so-called "political institutional" level and the level of the "base" or "substructure." The text then indicates the relevance of the proposed reformulation for a theory of change which could serve for comparative purposes, with attention to questions currently associated with the general theme of authoritarianism. Resume O trabalho tem como objectivo último o de procurar colocar em perspectiva mais frutífera o estudo comparativo de problemas ligados ao autoritarismo em diferentes formas, particularmente das aparentes convergências em certas estreuturas estatais latino-americanas e européias, tema central do grupo de estudo do congresso mundial de 1982 da IPSA para o qual foi elaborado. Parte-se da tentativa de reexaminar a própria noção de política, com base na exploração das conseqüências de proposições conhecidas de Jürgen Habermas. Passa-se daí para a discussão de dificuldades ligadas à idéia de "autonomia do político" e para a tentativa de reformular a questáo das relações entre diferentes "dimensões" analíticas, em especial o contraste entre o chamado nível "político-institucional" e o Nível da "base" ou "substrato." A relevância da reformulação proposta para uma teoria da mudança capaz de servir a objectivos comparativos é indicada em seguida, com atenção para questões correntemente associadas ao tema geral do autoritarismo. (32 pages)
Anotacões para um Estudo Sobre Populismo Catolico e Educacão no BrasilVanilda Paiva Working Paper #4 - December 1983 Vanilda Paiva was a Fellow of the Kellogg Institute from January to May 1983. She is a research fellow at the Centro João XXIII in Rio de Janeiro and Professor of the Department of Social Sciences Applied to Education, University of Campinas. She received her Ph.D.in Germany and has published extensively on popular education, Paulo Freire, and the Catholic Church, among other subjects. Abstract This text establishes a relationship between pedagogical populism found in Brazilian university circles dating from the middle 1960s and tendencies already present in popular educational movements of the 1950s, thereby tying the two to "Catholic populism." This latter tendency is characterized by veneration of the "Simple folk," source of cultural and political truth of the nation. Its origins go back to a current of the nationalist-developmentalist-ideology present in the writings of Vieira Pinto in which the influence of Christian existentialism is especially strong. This current is translated into a plan for popular pedagogy in the work of Paulo Freire. The populist characteristics have been radicalized in the second half of the 1970s through the writings of the NOVA group which acts as a guiding light to the popular movement. This article undertakes a comparison of the ideological models which are manifested in publications by NOVA, and those anarchists tendencies of Russian populism of the 19th century, thereby drawing out some of the political consequences of their diffusion in modern-day Brazil. Resumen Este texto relaciona el "populismo pedagogico" que se encuentra en los medios universitarios brasileños desde la segunda mitad de los años 60 con tendencias presentes en los movimientos de educación popular a partir de los años 50, vinculando ambos al "populismo católico." Este último es caracterizado por la veneración del "pueblo simple," fuente de la verdad cultural y política de la nación, y sus orígenes se remontan a una vertiente de la ideología del nacionalismo-desarrollista-presente en los libros de Vieira Pinto-en el cual la influencia del existencialismo cristiano es especialmente fuerte. Esta vertiente de dicha ideología se tradució en el plan de una pedagogía popular en la obra de Paulo Freire. Los rasgos populistas identificables en estos autores han sido radicalizados en la segunda mitad de los aõs 70 através de los escritos de los integrantes del grupo NOVA de asesoría al movimento popular. El presente texto hace una comparación de los padrones ideológicos que se manifiestan en las publicaciones del NOVA y los de la tendencia anarquista del populismo ruso del siglo XIX, extrayendo algunas de las consecuencias políticas de su difusión en el Brasil de hoy. (46 pages)
Varieties of Faith: Religion in Contemporary NicaraguaMargaret E. Crahan Working Paper #5 - December 1983 Margaret E. Crahan is currently Luce Professor of Religion, Power, and Political Processes at Occidental College. She is also a member of the Department of History, Herbert H. Lehman College, City University of New York. Dr. Crahan received her doctorate from Columbia University and has done field work in Peru, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Spain, and Switzerland on topics that span the seventeenth to twentieth centuries in Latin America. Her publications include studies of Spanish colonial administration, church-state relations, religion and politics, twentieth century Cuba, and African cultural heritage in the Caribbean. Dr. Crahan has served on the Executive Council of the Latin American Studies Association, as Vice-President of the Latin American Foundation,and on the Board of Directors of the Washington Office on Latin America. Her most recent book is Human Rights and Basic Needs in the Americas (1982). This paper was originally presented at the conference on "The New Church in Latin America," sponsored by the Kellogg Institute, April 22-24, 1983. Abstract The current ideological struggle in Nicaragua between the Sandinistas and their opponents is focused, to a considerable degree, in and on the Catholic Church. Shedding their traditional conservative image in the 1970s, Catholic clerics and laypeople became heavily involved in the movement to overthrow Somoza and establish a more equitable society. Drawing on the conclusions of the Second Vatican Council (1962-1965) and the Latin American Bishops Conference at Medellin, Colombia in 1968, progressive churchpeople helped mobilize support for the Sandinista movement. Such efforts were strongly legitimized when in June 1979 the Nicaraguan bishops publicly declared their support for the insurrection on the grounds that the Somoza government was not licit given its frequent violation of civil/political rights, as well as social and economic rights. Since the overthrow of Somoza in July, 1979, political and ideological differences within the Catholic Church have reasserted themselves, particularly over the Marxist tendencies of some of the Sandinista leadership. Certainly tension is high not only between the Catholic hierarchy and the government, but also between progressive and conservative churchpeople. The former continue to support and cooperate with the government and include several priests who hold high public office. They also include a good number of foreign missionaries. The conservatives include most of the bishops and Nicaraguan clergy. The outcome of the current conflicts involving the Catholic Church is not yet clear. What is, however, obvious is that while the Catholic Church is no longer a staunch ally of the status quo, neither is it unified in support of revolutionary movements. Resumen La presente lucha ideológica en Nicaragua entre los Sandinistas y sus opositores está focalizado, en gran parte, en la Iglesia católica. Abandonando su imagen tradicionalmente conservadora, en la década del 70 los católicos (Clérigos y laicos) se fueron comprometiendo fuertemente en el movimiento para derrocar a Somoza y construir una sociedad más justa. Basándose en las conclusiones del Segundo Concilio Vaticano (1962-65) y en Conferencia del Episcopado Latinoamericano de Medellín (Colombia, 1968), los católicos progresistas se constituyeron en soporte del movimiento Sandinista. Tales esfuerzos fueron plenamente legitimados en junio de 1979, ocasión en que los obispos nicaraguenses declararon públicamente su apoyo a la insurrección basándose en la ilegitimidad del govierno somozista, a la luz de sus frecuentes violaciones de los derechos civiles, políticos y sociales. Desde el derrocamiento de Somoza, en julio de 1979, las diferencias políticas e ideológicas dentro de la Iglesia católica se han reafirmado, particularmente en lo que respecta a las tendencias marxistas de algunos dirigentes Sandinistas. Las tensiones son fuertes, no solo entre la jerarquía católica y el gobierno, como también entre los sectores progresista y conservador de la Iglesia. Los primeros continuan apoyando y cooperando con el gobiero, Ilegando algunos sacerdotes a ocupar altos cargos gobernamentales. Un importante contingente de misionarios extranjeros forma parte, también, del sector progresista, pero la mayoria de los obispos y sacerdotes son conservadores. El resultado del presente conflicto en el interior de la Iglesia católica es aún imprevisible, pero sin duda ella ha adquirido una nueva identidad. Ha dejado de ser un firme aliado de los sectores dominantes, aunque esto no implique que apoye unificadamente a los movimientos revolucionarios. (25 pages)
The Catholic Youth Workers Movement (JOC) and the Emergence of the Popular Church in BrazilScott Mainwaring Working Paper #6 - December 1983 Scott Mainwaring is a Junior Fellow of the Kellogg Institute and Assistant Professor of Government at Notre Dame for the 1983-85 period. He received his Ph.D. from Stanford University in July 1983. His forthcoming book on "The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1982," emphasizes grass roots movements, the Church's work with the popular classes, and its role in the contemporary political liberalization process. He has published several articles on Brazil and Argentina. This paper was originally prepared for the conference on "The New Church in Latin America," sponsored by the Kellogg Institute, April 22-24, 1983. Abstract This paper traces the history of the Catholic Youth Workers movement (JOC) of Brazil during the 1958-1970 period and analyzes JOC's contributions to the transformation of the Brazilian Catholic Church. During the period under consideration, JOC was one of the most important lay movements in Brazil. It was also one of the most important precursors to the popular Church which flourished during the 1970s. JOC itself virtually died out in 1970, a victim of strong repression from the military regime and insufficient support from the bishops. But the movement helped introduce a kind of faith and pedagogical practices which would conquer increasing space within the Brazilian Church. In this regard, it helped transform an institution noted for being hierarchical, authoritarian, and unresponsive to grass roots or lay movements. At a theoretical level, the paper attempts to make two principal contributions. First, it emphasizes the importance grass roots and lay movements had in the transformation of the Brazilian Church. Second, it argues that analysis of changes in a lay movement like JOC should focus both on the movement's linkages to the Church and to the society as a whole, especially the working class. Resumen Este trabajo analiza la historia de la Juventud Obrera Católica de Brasil durante el período 1958-70, focalizando las contribuciones de la JOC en el proceso de transformación de la Iglesia Católica Brasileña. Durante el período aquí considerado la JOC fue uno de los más importantes movimientos laicos en Brasil y uno de los más importantes precursores de la Iglesia popular que floreció en la década del 70. Aunque la JOC desaparecióen 1970-víctima de la fuerte represión del régimen militar y del insuficiente apoyo del episcopado-su lucha contribuyó a introducir una nueva concepción de fe y prácticas pedagógicas que conquistarían espacio creciente dentro de la Iglesia brasileña. En este sentido la JOC cuestionó una institución caracterizada historicamente por sus jerarquías rígidas, el autoritarismo y el control sobre los movimientos de base. A nivel teórico, el trabajo intenta aportar en dos áreas. En primer lugar, enfatiza la mportancia que los movimientos de base y laicos han tenido en la transformación de la Iglesia brasileña. En segundo lugar, argumenta que el análistis de los cambios en un movimiento laico como la JOC debería focalizar sus vínculos con la Iglesia y la sociedad global, especialmente la clase obera. (53 pages)
Proposal for the Study of the Church's Role in the 1964 Brazilian Political CrisisPaulo Krischke Working Paper #7 - December, 1983 Dr. Krischke received his Ph.D. in Political Science from York University (Canada) in 1983. He was Editor of the Revista de Cultura e Política (CEDEC) and of LARU Studies (Toronto). Professor Krischke has held the position of Researcher at various important centers in Latin America, including IESE (Instituto de Estudios Socioeconómicos) in Santiago and CERIS (Centro de Estadística Religiosa e Investigações Sociais) in Rio de Janeiro. At present Dr. Krischke is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo. Abstract This paper discusses the Church's role in the 1964 political crisis in Brazil. It attempts to explain why, after supporting the populist regime from 1956 to 1963, the Church moved into the opposition and helped undermine this regime. The paper proposes a theoretical approach for studying the Church's political role which draws upon Gramsci, Habermas, and Bloch. Resumen Este trabajo discute el papel de la Iglesia en la crisis política brasileña de 1964. Se intenta explicar el cambio en la posición de la Iglesia en 1963: después de haber apoyado el régimen populista en el perfodo 1956-63 pasó a la oposición y contribuyó al derrocamiento de aquel. Este trabajo propone un enfogue teórico para el estudio del paper político de la Iglesia, construido a partir de Gramsci, Habermas, y Bloch. (45 pages)
The New Catholic Church in Latin America: A Conference ReportScott Mainwaring Working Paper #8 - December 1983 Scott Mainwaring is a Junior Fellow of the Kellogg Institute and Assistant Professor of Government at Notre Dame for the 1983-85 period. He received his Ph.D. from Stanford University in July 1983. His forthcoming book on "The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1982," emphasizes grass roots movements, the Church's work with the popular classes, and its role in the contemporary political liberalization process. He has published several articles on Brazil and Argentina. Abstract This paper is a rapporteur's report from a conference on "The New Catholic Church in Latin America," sponsored by the Kellogg Institute of the University of Notre Dame in April 1983. The conference focused on the changes the Church has undergone during the last 25 years, concentrating on Brazil, Peru, and Nicaragua, countries where the national Church has been particularly important in recent years. In addition to briefly summarizing the conference papers, the report identifies major themes and debates which characterize the current discussion about the Latin American Church. (1) Whereas some participants emphasized the potential the Christian base communities and other grass roots Church groups have to transform the Church and the political order, others argued that these communities are subject to tight hierarchial control and cannot make significant contributions in democratizing society. (2) Some participants view the turn towards the right in the international Church as a well orchestrated, clearly defined trend, while others, despite acknowledging the trend, disputing its magnitude. (3) The significant frictions between the Vatican, CELAM, and the hierarchy and the Nicaraguan revolution point to the continuation of tensions between the Church and revolutionary regimes, but there were debates about the inevitability of these conflicts. (4) Some papers attributed to the Church a high capacity to control the nature and direction of institutional change, while others pay more attention to the way political and social changes shape the Church's institutional identity in ways it does not wholly foresee or control. (5) Several participants addressed the important and under studied question of the role women play in the Church. (6) Several people also addressed the issue of popular religiousity and its linkages to the institutional Church. (7) Finally, participants discussed some of the theoretical and methodological problems in studying such a complex, heterogenous institution. Resumen Este trabajo es un informe del seminario sobre "La Nueva Iglesia Católica en América Latina" patrocinado por el Kellogg Institute de la University of Notre Dame, en abril de 1983. El seminario se concentró en los cambios que la Iglesia ha sufrido en los últimos 25 años tomando como ejemplos los casos brasileño, peruano y nicaraguense, dado que en estos países el papel de la Iglesia ha sido particularmente relevante en el perído reciente. Además de un breve resumen del seminario el informe identifica los temas y debates måas significativos que caracterizan la presente discusión sobre la Iglesia latinoamerica. (1) Mientras algunos participantes enfatizaron las potencialidades de las Comunidades eslesiales de base y otros movimentos de base para producir transformaciones en la Iglesia y en el sistema político, otros argumentaron que estas comunidades están sometidas al control de la jerarquía y debido a ello no pueden contribuir significativamente a la democratización de la sociedad. (2) Mietras algunos participantes consideraron el vireaje hacia la derecha en la Iglesia internacional como una tendencia claramente orquestrada y definida, otros, a pesar de reconocer aquella tendencia, minimizaron su magnitud. (3) Las fricciones entre el Varicano, CELAM y el episcopado nicaraguense, de un lado, y la revolución Sandinista, del otro lado, muestran una continuidad de las tensiones entre la Iglesia y los regímenes revolucionarios, aunque hubo discordandias acerca de la inevitabilidad de estos conflictos. (4) Algunos papeles atribuyeron a la Iglesia una alta capacidad para controlar la naturaleza y la dirección del cambio institucional, mientras otros apuntaron hacia el modo en que los cambios políticos y sociales redefinieron la identidad institucional de la Iglesia de un modo no totalmente previsto o controlado. (5) Se señaló la importancia de estudiar el rol de la mujer en la Iglesia. (6) Se destacó la cuestión de la religiosidad popular y sus vínculos con la Iglesia institucional. (7) Finalmente, los participantes discutieron algunos problemas metodológicos específicos al estudio de la Iglesia. (26 pages)
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