Working Papers #171 - 180
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Nancy R. Powers
Working Paper #171 - January 1992
Nancy R. Powers is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Government and International Studies at the University of Notre Dame. She is currently conducting fieldwork in Buenos Aires for her dissertation study of political thought among the Argentine poor, focussing on those impoverished by the current economic crisis. She wrote with Timothy Power, "Issues in the Consolidation of Democracy in Latin America and Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective: A Rapporteurs' Report," Kellogg Working Paper no. 113.
Abstract
This rapporteur's report encompasses discussions and formal papers of the December 1990 conference on "The Transitions to Democracy in Paraguay: Problems and Prospects." The essay begins with a brief history of twentieth-century Paraguayan politics, followed by analysis of the effects that various structural factors and social and political actors might have on the transition. Specific structural topics include: the legacy of Stroessner's economic development style, recent economic conditions, the international context, the peasant movement, and questions of how and when to handle demands for land reform. Social and political actors analyzed include: the business sector, organized labor, the military, and political parties. Paraguay, while not yet a democracy, has nevertheless undergone significant political (and some economic) liberalization in a short time. The international climate supports the transition, while the weakness of civil organizations and opposition parties, a politicized military, and intransigent factions of the dominant Colorado Party present challenges to democratic consolidation. Overall, conferees were optimistic that the regime will continue to liberalize and not return to dictatorship.
Resumen
Este reporte abarca las discusiones y trabajos presentados en el seminario de diciembre de 1990 sobre "La transición hacia la democracia en Paraguay: problemas y perspectivas". El ensayo empieza con una breve historia de la política paraguaya durante el siglo veinte, seguida de un análisis de los efectos que pueden tener varios factores estructurales, así como diversos actores sociales y políticos, sobre la transición. Algunos temas estructurales específicos se refieren al legado del estilo de desarrollo económico bajo el régimen de Stroessner, a las condiciones económicas recientes, al contexto internacional, al movimiento campesino, así como a preguntas sobre como y cuando manejar las demandas de refoma agraria. Los actores políticos y sociales analizados incluyen el sector empresarial, la clase obrera organizada, los militares y los partidos políticos. Aunque Paraguay no es todavía una democracia, ha vivido una significativa liberalización política (y en menor medida económica) durante un corto período de tiempo. Mientras que, por un lado, el entorno internacional es propicio a la transición, por otra parte, la debilidad de las organizaciones civiles y de los partidos de oposición, la politización de los militares y las facciones intransigentes del dominante partido Colorado, presentan retos a la consolidación democrática. En conjunto, los participantes en el seminario expresaron optimismo en cuanto a que el régimen seguirá liberalizándose y no volverá a la dictadura.
(40 pages)
Guillermo O'Donnell
Working Paper #172 - March 1992
Guillermo O'Donnell, Helen Kellogg Professor of Sociology and Government and Inter-national Studies, is Academic director of the Institute.
The present work is done in the framework of the project "East-South System Transformation," directed by Adam Przeworski; the first version of this paper was presented at the November 1990 meeting, in Budapest, of that project. Research for this paper has been supported by general research funds of the Kellogg Institute, as well as by grants from the Ford Foundation and the International Development Research Centre to the "Grupo de Estudos Políticos" of CEBRAP. This support is gratefully acknowledged.
Abstract
This paper presents a first result of ongoing research on emerging forms of democracy in contemporary Latin America. The author argues that it may be necessary to conceptualize a new type of "delegative" democracy, as different in some crucial respects from the "representative" democracy that has been theorized in the existing literature. The emergence and workings of delegative democracy are seen as closely interwoven with the deep social and economic crisis that some Latin American countries are undergoing. But those relationships remain to be worked out by research in progress.
Resumen
Este ensayo presenta los resultados iniciales de una investigación en curso sobre las formas emergentes de la democracia en la América Latina contemporánea. El autor sostiene la necesidad de conceptualizar un nuevo tipo de democracia "delegativa" que difiere en algunos aspectos cruciales de la democracia "representativa" que ha sido teorizada en la literatura existente. El surgimiento y el funcionamiento de la democracia delegativa se encuentran estrechamente vinculados con la profunda crisis social y económica por la que están pasando algunos países latinoamericanos. La especificación de estos vínculos constituye una tarea a realizar en la investigación en curso.
(16 pages)
Thomas E. Skidmore
Working Paper #173 - April 1992
Thomas E. Skidmore is Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Professor of History and Director of the Center for Latin American Studies at Brown University. He is the author of The Politics of Military Rule in Brazil, 1964-1985 (Oxford University Press, 1988) and Black into White: Race and Nationality in Brazilian Thought (OUP 1974), and coauthor, with Peter H. Smith, of Modern Latin America (second edition, OUP 1989). In the fall of 1991 he was Hewlett Residential Fellow at the Kellogg Institute.
Earlier versions of this paper were presented at a conference on "Population, Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict" at the Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University (April 1991) and at a meeting of specialists on Afro-Brazilian studies organized by the Centro de Estudos Afro-Asiáticos (Conjunto Universitário Cândido Mendes) in Rio de Janeiro (31 October-1 November 1991). Very useful comments were provided by Reid Andrews, Alicia Bercovich, Roberto DaMatta, Calvin Goldscheider, Carlos Hasenbalg, Rhett Jones, Yvonne Maggie, and Fulvia Rosemberg. The author benefitted greatly from contacts in Brazil obtained while consulting for the Ford Foundation on the state of Afro-Brazilian studies in that country. Needless to say, all opinions expressed here are his own.
Abstract
This paper examines prevalent attitudes towards race in Brazil's multiracial society. The author notes that, while there is a considerable literature on slavery and the struggle for abolition, relatively little work has been done on race in Brazil today even though color continues to correlate highly with social stratification. He argues that historically the Brazilian elite has been able to hold to a belief in white superiority and at the same time deny the existence of a racial problem by adopting an "assimilationist" ideology. This begins with the late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century thesis that Brazil was progressively "whitening" and continues up to the present day with the widely held view that disproportionate Afro-Brazilian poverty is a legacy of socioeconomic disadvantage and not a result of discrimination. This official ideology has strongly affected the availability of data until recently and has generally been a dominant influence on mainstream academic research on race. The author traces the emergence of criticism of the "myth of racial democracy" from Afro-Brazilian militants and some social scientists, and gives a brief overview of the existing research on contemporary Brazilian race relations. He concludes by outlining a future research agenda for Afro-Brazilian studies.
Resumen
Este trabajo analiza las actitudes prevalecientes hacia los diversos grupos étnicos en la sociedad multiracial del Brasil. El autor observa que, mientras que existe una considerable literatura sobre la esclavitud y la lucha por abolirla, se ha, en cambio, estudiado relativamente poco a los diversos grupos raciales en Brasil, a pesar de que el color continúa correlacionándose en gran medida con la estratificación social. El autor argumenta que, históricamente, la élite brasileña ha sido capaz de mantener la creencia en la superioridad del blanco y, al mismo tiempo, de negar la existencia de un problema racial adoptando una ideología "asimilacionista". Ello comienza con la tesis de finales del siglo diecinueve y principios del veinte de que Brasil se iba "blanqueando" progresivamente y continúa hasta la fecha con la opinión ampliamente difundida de que la desproporcionada pobreza afrobrasileña constituye un legado del atraso socioeconómico y no un resultado de la discriminación. Esta ideología oficial ha influído fuertemente en la disponibilidad de datos hasta fechas recientes, y ha ejercido generalmente una influencia dominante sobre la corriente principal de la investigación académica que trata el problema racial. El autor analiza el surgimiento de las críticas al "mito de la democracia racial" por parte de militantes afrobrasileños y de algunos científicos sociales y proporciona un breve panorama de la investigación existente sobre las relaciones raciales brasileñas contemporáneas. Concluye presentando una agenda para la investigación futura en el área de estudios afrobrasileños.
(21 pages)
Dilemmas of Multiparty Presidential Democracy: The Case of Brazil
Scott Mainwaring
Working Paper #174 - May 1992
Scott Mainwaring is Associate Professor of Government and Senior Fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He is the author of The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1985 (Stanford University Press, 1986), and coeditor of and contributor to The Progressive Church in Latin America (Kellogg Institute/University of Notre Dame Press, 1989) and Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective (Kellogg Institute/University of Notre Dame Press, 1992). He has published articles on political parties, social movements, and transitions to democracy in Latin America.
Ronald Archer, Michael Coppedge, Daniel Levine, Antonio Paixão, and Matthew Shugart made helpful suggestions on this paper.
Abstract
Focusing on the case of Brazil, this paper argues that the combination of presidentialism and a multiparty system has created difficult problems in the two (mostly) democratic periods of that country's history, 1946-64 and 1985-present. The situation of permanent minority presidential-ism easily leads to executive/legislative stalemate resulting in political immobilism. Because of the rigid electoral timetable of the presidential system, there are no institutionalized means of dealing with this situation of presidents who lack stable congressional support. The extremely malleable character of Brazilian parties has exacerbated this problem. When presidents are popular, politicians of all stripes and colors support them, but when they lose favor, they often have difficulty winning support even in their own parties. Defections in hard times make it difficult for presidents to pursue coherent measures that could substantially redirect policy. Presidents have responded by trying to bypass parties and congress so that their most important programs will not be endangered by immobilism, congressional inaction, and the patronage designs of party politicians. Realizing that their base of support in any particular party is never entirely secure, they try to form broad multiparty coalitions through the distribution of patronage. Several presidents attempted to mobilize the masses as a means of offsetting their lack of institutional support, but doing so further weakened political institutions. Even with this panoply of measures, chief executives have had difficulties managing as minority presidents in a fragmented party system dominated by malleable parties. Although the empirical evidence is drawn from the Brazilian case, the paper argues that the combination of presidentialism and fragmented multipartism is generally problematic.
Resumen
Concentrándose en el caso del Brasil, este trabajo argumenta que la combinación de presidencialismo con un sistema multipartidista ha creado serios problemas durante los dos períodos de (mayor) democracia en la historia de dicho país, de 1946 a 1964 y de 1985 hasta la fecha. Una situación de presidencialismo minoritario permanente conduce fácilmente a una parálisis en las relaciones entre ejecutivo y legislativo lo cual da como resultado el inmobilismo político. Debido al rígido calendario electoral del sistema presidencial, no existen medios institucionales para superar esta situación cuando los presidentes carecen de un apoyo estable del Congreso. El carácter extremadamente maleable de los partidos brasileños ha exacerbado este problema. Cuando los presidentes son populares, los políticos de todos los tipos y colores los apoyan, pero cuando caen en desgracia, muchas veces tienen dificultad en obtener apoyo, incluso dentro de sus propios partidos. La deserción en tiempos difíciles dificulta a los presidentes adoptar medidas coherentes que podrían reorientar substancialmente la política. Los presidentes han respondido tratando de pasar por alto a los partidos y al Congreso de tal manera que sus programas más importantes no puedan ser puestos en peligro por el inmobilismo, la inactividad del Congreso, y el clientelismo de los políticos de partido. Al darse cuenta de que su base de apoyo dentro de cualquier partido nunca se encuentra completamente asegurada, intentan formar amplias coaliciones multipartidistas mediante la distribución del clientelismo. Varios presidentes intentaron movilizar a las masas como medio para compensar su falta de apoyo institucional; sin embargo, esta práctica trajo como consecuencia el debilitamiento de las instituciones políticas. Incluso con esta panoplia de medidas, los primeros mandatarios han tenido dificultad para gobernar como presidentes minoritarios dentro de un sistema partidista fragmentado dominado por partidos maleables. Aunque la evidencia empírica se refiere al caso brasileño, el trabajo argumenta que la combinación de presidencialismo y multipartidismo fragmentado es problemática en general.
(52 pages)
Institutional Constraints to Economic Policies: Wage Bargaining and Stabilization in Brazil
Edward J. Amadeo
Working Paper #175 - May 1992
Edward J. Amadeo, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics at PUC-RJ, obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University in 1985. He has been external consultant for the Brazilian Central Bank, WIDER, PREALC/ILO, the World Bank, and UNRISD. Among extensive publications, he has authored Keynes's Principle of Effective Demand (1989) and coauthored, with Amitava K. Dutt, Keynes's Third Alternative? The Neo-Ricardian Keynesians and the Post-Keynesians (1990) and, with Marcello Estevão, A Teoria Econômica do Desemprego (1991). He is editor of John Maynard Keynes: Cinquenta Anos da Teoria Geral (1989) and Ensaios sobre Economia Política Moderna (1990). He is currently completing a book on 'New Unionism,' Collective Bargaining, and Distributive Conflict in Brazil.
This paper was written during the author's stay at the University of Notre Dame as Visiting Professor of the Department of Economics and Visiting Departmental Fellow of the Kellogg Institute, spring 1991. He is grateful to Ernest Bartell, c.s.c., Samuel Valenzuela, and Amitava Dutt for their comments; and to Kurt Weyland, Francisco Weffort, and Roberto DaMatta for discussions over issues related to the paper.
Abstract
After a short review of the logics of unions' attitudes in wage bargaining the author turns to the origins of the Brazilian corporatist labor system, then directs attention to new developments such as the centralization of the union movement in the last ten years, its relation with political parties, and new trends in collective bargaining. The paper then looks at the effectiveness of policy instruments in recent stabilization attempts, and finally discusses the prospects for a concerted incomes policy.
Resumen
Después de una breve revisión de la lógica de las actitudes de los sindicatos en las negociaciones salariales, el autor procede a analizar los orígenes de la organización corporativista del trabajo en Brasil y, posteriormente, dirige su atención hacia algunos cambios recientes tales como la centralización del movimiento sindical en los últimos diez años, su relación con los partidos políticos, y las nuevas tendencias en la negociación colectiva. Posteriormente el trabajo analiza la efectividad de los instrumentos de política económica en los intentos recientes de estabilización y, finalmente, discute las perspectivas que puede tener una política de ingresos concertada.
(32 pages)
The Private Sector and the Public Transcript: The Political Mobilization of Business in Bolivia
Catherine M. Conaghan
Working Paper #176 - June 1992
Catherine M. Conaghan is Associate Professor of Political Studies at Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario. She is the author of Restructuring Domination: Industrialists and the State in Ecuador (University of Pittsburgh Press, 1988). Funding for her research on business elites has been provided by the Advisory Research Council and Principal's Development Fund of Queen's University.
This paper was presented at a conference on "Business Elites and Democracy in Latin America," held at the Kellogg Institute in May 1991.
Abstract
This paper examines the origins and development of business interest group activism in Bolivia. During the 1980s, business interest groups became high-profile political actors that worked openly to reshape the policy-making and ideological landscape of Bolivia. The thrust of the campaign was to promote neoliberal economic ideas and to create a more positive public image of the private sector. While these efforts met with some success, challenges by popular class organizations and criticisms of business behavior by politicians tempered the effects of the business campaign on remaking public opinion. Moreover, the continued reluctance of domestic capitalists to undertake substantial new investments further undercut business's attempt to project itself as progressive and productive. Nonetheless, the business mobilization was effective in heightening class consciousness and solidarity. The mixed political and economic record of the Bolivian private sector underscores the continuing problems involved in constructing bourgeois hegemony in Latin America.
Resumen
Este trabajo analiza los orígenes y el desarrollo del activismo de los grupos de interés empresariales en Bolivia. Durante la década de los ochentas, los grupos de interés empresariales se convirtieron en prominentes actores políticos, actuando abiertamente para remodelar el panorama ideológico y el proceso de toma de decisiones en Bolivia. Esta campaña consistió en divulgar las ideas económicas neoliberales y en la creación de una imagen pública más positiva del sector privado. Aunque estos esfuerzos tuvieron algo de éxito, los retos de parte de las organizaciones populares y las críticas al comportamiento empresarial de parte de los políticos mitigaron los efectos de la campaña empresarial sobre la opinión pública. Asímismo, el contínuo temor de los capitalistas domésticos de llevar a cabo nuevas inversiones substanciales contribuyó también a diluír la imagen de progreso y productividad que los empresarios intentaban proyectar. Con todo, la movilización empresarial resultó efectiva en términos de elevar la conciencia y la solidaridad de clase. La ambigüedad de los antecedentes políticos y económicos del sector privado boliviano pone de relieve la persistencia de los problemas que enfrentan los intentos por edificar una hegemonía burguesa en América Latina.
(24 pages)
The Political Economy of Statism in South Korean Development
Kwan S. Kim
Working Paper #177 - June 1992
Kwan S. Kim is Professor of Economics and Departmental Fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He is a development economist, occasionally serving as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. His career includes four years as a Rockefeller Foundation scholar in East Africa, two years as a senior economist with the Agency for International Development, and short stints as an economic advisor or consultant at such institutions as the Hudson Institute, UNIDO, and the National Financiera in Mexico. He has published extensively in over fifty professional journals and edited volumes in the areas of development studies, international trade, econometrics, development planning, and industrialization, with a special interest in East Africa, East Asia, and Mexico, and edited Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America. He is author of Industrial Policy and Development in South Korea and coauthor of Development Strategies for the Future of Mexico and Korean Agricultural Research: The Integration of Research and Extension.
This is an expanded version of part of the paper "Market Miracle and State Stagnation? The Development Experience of South Korea and India Compared," given jointly with Amitava Dutt at the workshop on "The State, Markets, and Development" held at the Kellogg Institute in April 1992.
Abstract
This study takes South Korea as a case to assess the role of the state with special reference to the period of rapid economic growth under a strong state (1961-87). This covers the period when state intervention was persistent and most active. It will be argued that the state played a critical role in industrialization, prevailing in every sector of the economy. Market rationality was to be compromised by the paramount goal of industrialization. The paper analyzes the historical process and the social structure that have given birth to an authoritarian state in South Korea. The intention here is not to develop a theory of the state but to bring to attention the particular features of East Asia's developmental state. The next section presents an overview of industrial development in Korea from the historical perspective, looking closely at the choice of development strategy and its consequences over the different phases of industrialization. Section three surveys the origin and scope of state authority, assessing the role of the state in the process of industrialization. A specific question addressed is how the state in postliberation South Korea has been able to maintain dominance over civil society. The concluding section summarizes the main points of the paper and explores the broad lessons from the Korean model.
Resumen
El presente estudio analiza el caso de Corea del Sur con el fin de evaluar el papel del Estado con especial referencia al período de rápido crecimiento económico bajo un Estado fuerte (1961-87). En este período la intervención estatal fue activa y persistente. Se argumenta que el Estado desempeñó un papel crítico en la industrialización, predominando en cada uno de los sectores de la economía. De esta manera, la racionalidad de mercado quedó sujeta a la meta suprema de la industrialización. Este trabajo analiza el proceso histórico y la estructura social que dieron lugar al estado autoritario en Corea del Sur. La intención en esta parte no es la de desarrollar una teoría del estado, sino la de resaltar las características particulares del estado desarrollista del este de Asia. La siguiente sección presenta un panorama del desarrollo industrial de Corea partiendo de una perspectiva histórica, y poniendo particular atención a la elección de la estrategia de desarrollo y sus consecuencias en las diferentes etapas de la industrialización. La sección tres examina el origen y el alcance de la autoridad estatal, analizando el papel del estado en el proceso de industrialización. Una de las preguntas específicas abordadas es la de cómo el estado, durante la etapa independiente de Corea del Sur, ha sido capaz de mantener el dominio sobre la sociedad civil. La última sección resume los puntos principales del trabajo y explora las amplias lecciones que arroja el modelo coreano.
(24 pages)
The Cautionary Tale of Carolina Maria de Jesus
Robert M. Levine
Working Paper #178 - June 1992
Robert M. Levine is Director of Latin American Studies at the University of Miami and is the author of several books on Brazilian social history, including a new monograph Vale of Tears (University of California Press, 1992).
The author wishes to acknowledge the enthusiastic and diligent assistance of Juliano Spyer in São Paulo and Cristina Mehrtens in Coral Gables, and the help of José Carlos Sebe Bom Meihy and Martha D. Huggins.
Abstract
This paper traces the fortunes of an Afro-Brazilian woman from the slums of São Paulo, a self-taught writer who for a brief period during the 1960s became an international celebrity as author of the best-selling book in Brazilian publishing history. Outspoken and independent, she refused to be patronized or conform to the role expected of her by educated white elites and the media, who reacted with a combination of personalistic attacks and neglect. She died in poverty and was buried in a paupers' cemetery, and today her story has been largely forgotten.
Resumen
El presente trabajo reconstruye el destino de una mujer afrobrasileña, proveniente de los barrios pobres de São Paulo, escritora autodidacta que, durante un breve período en la década de los sesentas, se convirtió en una celebridad internacional como autora del libro de mayor venta en la historia de las publicaciones brasileñas. Franca e independiente, se rehusó a ser patrocinada o a adaptarse al papel que de ella esperaban las élites blancas educadas y los medios de comunicación, los cuales respondieron a ese rechazo con una combinación de ataques personales e ignorancia. Murió en la pobreza y fue sepultada en un cementerio para los pobres y, actualmente, su historia ha sido en gran medida olvidada.
(25 pages)
Leigh A. Payne
Working Paper #179 - August 1992
Leigh A. Payne is Assistant Professor in Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. She recently completed her doctorate on "Pragmatic Actors: The Political Attitudes and Behavior of Brazilian Industrial Elites" at Yale University, and a version of her dissertation is forthcoming with Johns Hopkins University Press. Her research focuses on business elites, particularly capital-labor relations, in the transition to democracy in Latin America. Her article "Working-Class Strategies in the Transition to Democracy in Brazil" was recently published in Comparative Politics.
The author wishes to thank the following friends and scholars for their comments on earlier versions of this paper: Stephen E. Meili, Ernest Bartell, Ben Ross Schneider, Lynne Wozniak, Scott Mainwaring, Samuel Valenzuela, and Caroline Domingo. She also wishes to acknowledge the following institutions for their financial support for this project: the Social Science Research Council, the Fulbright Commission, the Kellogg Institute, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. This version of the paper was first presented at a conference on "Business Elites and Democracy in Latin America," held at the Kellogg Institute in May 1991.
Abstract
Brazilian business elites were the key civilian supporters of the 1964 military coup. During the transition to democracy these elites have faced the same threats that prompted their support for the coup: economic crisis, capital-labor conflict, and threats to private property. Yet, in contrast to their behavior in the earlier period, and contrary to the predictions in the transitions to democracy literature, these elites are now unlikely to endorse an authoritarian regime to resolve their problems. This paper provides insights into two main reasons why business elites have tolerated the democratic transition: their altered perceptions of the cost of authoritarian rule and their increased influence over political outcomes. It also suggests ways in which the new democratic governments may sustain business elites' acceptance of democracy without allowing them to hold the democratic governments hostage to their interests.
Resumen
Las elites empresariales brasileñas constituyeron el principal apoyo civil al golpe militar de 1964. Durante la transición hacia la democracia, estas elites se han tenido que enfrentar a los mismos desafíos que determinaron su apoyo al golpe: crisis económica, conflicto entre capital y trabajo, y amenazas a la propiedad privada. Sin embargo, en contraste con su comportamiento durante el período anterior y, contrariamente a las predicciones de la literatura sobre las transiciones hacia la democracia, es muy improbable que, hoy en día, estas elites respaldaran un régimen autoritario para resolver sus problemas. Este trabajo reflexiona en torno a dos razones principales por las que las elites empresariales han tolerado la transición democrática: la modificación de sus percepciones sobre el costo del régimen autoritario y su acrecentada influencia sobre los resultados políticos. También sugiere formas en que los nuevos gobiernos democráticos pueden mantener la aceptación de la democracia por parte de las elites empresariales sin que al mismo tiempo se conviertan en rehenes de estos intereses.
(29 pages)
Amitava Krishna Dutt
Working Paper #180 - August 1992
Amitava Krishna Dutt is Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame and a Departmental Fellow of the Kellogg Institute. He works on growth and distribution theory, post Keynesian economics, the macroeconomics of development, and international trade and uneven development. He is the author of Growth, Distribution and Uneven Development (Cambridge University Press, 1990), coauthor of Keynes's Third Alternative? (Edward Elgar, 1990), and coeditor of New Directions in Development Economics (Edward Elgar, 1992), and he has published numerous articles in such journals as American Economic Review, the Cambridge Journal of Economics, the Journal of Development Economics, the Journal of Development Studies, the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Oxford Economic Papers, the Review of Radical Political Economics, and World Development.
The author is grateful to three anonymous referees and the Managing Editor of World Development, and to Robert Blecker and Anthony Thirlwall, for their useful comments on an earlier draft. He also thanks José Cordero for research assistance. This paper is forthcoming in World Development.
Abstract
This paper develops a simple three-region model of the global economy along structuralist lines, with the North, NICs, and the (rest of the) South. The North produces an investment-cum-consumption good while the NICs and the South produce two different consumption goods. The North grows with excess capacity along Kalecki-Keynes lines; the NICs are modelled along Marxian lines with a given rate of exploitation and the South along Lewis lines with a given subsistence wage. The short-run and long-run dynamics and equilibrium properties of the model are analyzed. It is shown that parametric shifts that result in a relative growth of NIC capital (as compared to the North and the South) in the long run usually result in uneven North-South development.
Resumen
Este trabajo desarrolla un modelo sencillo de tipo estructuralista en el que la economía mundial se desagrega en tres regiones: el Norte, los países de industrialización reciente (NICs) y el (resto del) Sur. El Norte produce un bien tanto de consumo como de inversión mientras que los NICs y el Sur producen dos bienes de consumo diferentes. El crecimiento del Norte se da con exceso de capacidad al estilo de los modelos de Kalecki y Keynes; el modelo que se aplica a los NICs es, en cambio, de inspiración marxista con una tasa dada de explotación, mientras que el Sur sigue una pauta de crecimiento a la Lewis con un salario dado de subsistencia. El trabajo analiza la dinámica de corto y largo plazo así como las propiedades de equilibrio del modelo. Se muestra que cambios paramétricos que dan lugar a un crecimiento relativo del capital de los NICs (comparado con el Norte y el Sur) generalmente dan como resultado en el largo plazo un desarrollo desigual entre Norte y Sur.
(22 pages)
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